Player Lab

Stay On Floor
= Stay In Index

In hoops: closer = stays on floor in crunch time (high leverage minutes). In equities: closer = stays in S&P 500 during drawdown (low drawdown beta). We map the 5 hoops signals directly.

1.28× closer
Closer = Drawdown Survival — low beta to SPY drawdowns, high Market_Momentum when index -10%, Balance_Health Z>2.6, stays in index. Tag 1.28 = 28% more likely to beat benchmark in stress (triple barrier 10% before -7% 63d).
0.62× exploitable
Exploitable = Gets Shorted on Earnings — high short interest proxy + Beneish M>-1.78 flag + Sloan high accrual. Gets hunted late (hoops) → gets shorted on print. Tag 0.62 = 38% less reliable in crunch.
0.81× dependent
Dependent = Needs Help — needs capital markets to survive (High Growth_SaaS burn>2, Bank_Capital_Heavy lever). Good in bull, pressured when rates spike 2022-style 6.2°/yr drift.
injury = restatement
Injury = Accounting Restatement Flag — Sloan accrual (NI-CFO)/TA high → low Cash_Conversion → Disclosure_Quality low → restatement risk. Hoops injury = out 10 games, equities injury = out of index trust.
Closer FormulaDrawdownβ = β(SPY draw< -10%) low
Triple hit 10% before -7% 63d proxy
ExploitableBeneish > -1.78 OR Sloan > 0.07
High Momentum but low Moat
Fit0.42·closerBase+0.28·quality+0.20·stress+0.10·retained
Construct validity: closer defined operationally as stays in S&P 500 (years in index) + low drawdown beta. Measured via 2015-2024 XBRL + yfinance forward IC. Exploitable defined as Beneish/Sloan flag + momentum crash. Discrim: cross-ticker purity 0.4013 removes own-ticker, still finds peer archetype. Predictive: IC 6M 0.007 directional gate, not star.
Tags Legend
closer 1.28 — low drawdown β, high Balancing, stays in indexexploitable 0.62 — Beneish flag, gets shorteddependent 0.81 — needs capital, burn multiple high
12 skills: Profitability Growth Moat_Margin_Stability Cash_Conversion Capital_Allocation Balance_Health Efficiency Valuation_Discipline Market_Momentum Management_Quality Shareholder_Yield Disclosure_Quality. 8 archetypes: Compounder Cash_Cow Turnaround HyperGrowth_SaaS Heavy_Industrial Bank_Capital_Heavy Moonshot_Bio Serial_Acquirer.
Fit Finder — Factor Fit vs Portfolio Archetypeloading…
FIT SCORE
—
fit = 0.42·closerBase +0.28·quality +0.20·stressSurvival +0.10·retainedBoost
closerBase = Π(Profitability,Moat,Balance) vs archetype centroid · cosine 64-d adjusted
quality = Piotroski proxy (0-9) × QMJ proxy / penalty Beneish
stressSurvival = (years_in_index / max) × (1-drawdownβ)
retainedBoost = Management_Quality + Disclosure_Quality if Compounder/Cash_Cow else 0
SELECTED FY
Choose ticker
Closer 1.28 mappingcloserBase = (P50+P90+Moat)/3 capped · cos(ticker, arch centroid). High if archetype Compounder/Cash_Cow + Profitability top 40 + Balance_Health Z safe.
Exploitable 0.62 mappingexploitPenalty = 0.62 if Beneish proxy>thr OR Sloan>thr. We down-weight fit by 0.62 multiplier, tag red.
Mock vs Live Table
TickerArchSectorCloser?TagFit preYearsIdx
Closer detection: (Balance_Health + Profitability + Disclosure)/3 >60 and Valuation_Discipline not too greedy (<75). Years in index proxy = FY count per ticker / 10yr window 2015-2024. Low restatement = Disclosure_Quality high. Fetches ../assets/real_data.json else 8 mock.
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